Two teams trending in opposite directions face off on “Sunday Night Football” this week, as the New York Jets play host to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets are 0-2 since winning their season opener, while the Chiefs are 2-0 since losing in their opener. New York has scored 10 points in each of its past two games, while Kansas City has allowed an average of 9.5 points per game over its past two contests.
The Chiefs appeared to hit their groove last week vs. the Chicago Bears, winning 41-10. Patrick Mahomes didn’t even finish the game, as Kansas City dropped a whopping 34 points in just the first half. As for the Jets, Robert Saleh is attempting to convince the fanbase if Zach Wilson is the best option for New York under center. If Wilson were to drop this game, the former No. 2 overall pick would tie Mahomes in career losses with 17. To put that in perspective, Wilson has started 24 career games, while Mahomes has started 83.
Taylor Swift willfor this prime-time affair. She sparked a blowout win for the Chiefs last week. Can she do it again? Below, we will break down this Sunday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here’s how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Last Sunday night, this line reopened at KC -7.5. The next day, it was bet up to KC -8.5, and then to KC -9.5 on Monday. Interestingly enough, the line fell back to KC -8.5 on Thursday, before popping back up to KC -9 on Friday.
The pick: Chiefs -9. This ATS pick is actually one of my. Here’s what I said in my column:
“I know it was just the Chicago Bears, but I think the Chiefs are back on track after a rough start to the season. As for the Jets … convincing fans Zach Wilson is the best quarterback for this team has become a full-time job for head coach Robert Saleh.
“Wilson gets too much hate at this point and I think it’s lame to pile on. But it’s hard not to talk about him when we are trying to break down Jets games. In a Week 4 lookahead packet they sent me, CBS Sports Research called Patrick Mahomes vs. Zach Wilson the “Mismatch of the century” (QB vs. QB, not team vs. team). Mahomes has 19 career halves with three passing touchdowns. Wilson has zero career games with three passing touchdowns. Wilson has the lowest passer rating in the NFL this season (57.0), and has already gone back to back in worst passer rating in 2021 and 2022. He also has a worse TD-INT ratio than JaMarcus Russell through 25 games.
“I will say that Wilson’s offensive line has not been good at all, and is a reason the Jets statistically have the worst offense in the league in yards per game (225) and points per game (14).”
The total reopened at 44.5 on Sunday night, but was quickly bet down to 43. Monday, it fell to 42.5, and we saw another drop to 41.5 on Thursday.
The pick: Over 41.5. My initial final score prediction included 42 points being scored. Interestingly enough, the total is 41.5. The Chiefs average 26 points scored per game while the Jets average 14 (last in the league). The Under has hit in seven out of the last eight games for the Jets, but I’m going to go ahead and lean Over in this matchup. Still, I don’t feel very confident in my game script. Do the Chiefs jump out to a double-digit lead and then just coast? Do they pile it on? Does the Jets defense find a way to somewhat hold Mahomes in check?
Patrick Mahomes props
Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +129, Under -179)
Passing yards: 276.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing attempts: 36.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
Passing completions: 24.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +112, Under -154)
Give me the Under on Mahomes’ passing yards number and passing touchdown number. I’m going to “pass” on Mahomes’ passing completions and attempts numbers, but if you’re curious, the star signal-caller is averaging 24.6 passing completions and 37.6 passing attempts per game. I will take a flier on Mahomes’ longest passing completion going over 37 yards, and pass on his interception prop.
Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
Passing yards: 172.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Passing attempts: 28.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
Passing completions: 16.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Longest passing completion: 30.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -160, Under +116)
I’ll lean toward Wilson throwing a touchdown on Sunday night. He’s done so in two of three games this season. I’m leaning over on his passing attempts. Wilson completed 18 of 36 passes last week against the New England Patriots. Wilson to complete a pass of over 30.5 yards is a total crap shoot. Lean Under on that one. Finally, I will absolutely take Wilson to throw an interception this week. He didn’t throw one vs. New England, but threw four in the first two weeks.
Props to consider
Rashee Rice receiving yards: Over 25.5 (-113). The rookie wideout has crossed this number in two of three games played, and is coming off of a career performance vs. Chicago in which he caught five passes for 59 yards.
Garrett Wilson receptions: Over 4.5 (-121). I imagine this prop will hit in the fourth quarter, but the Jets have to get something going through the air, and force-feeding their best player would be a good idea.
Harrison Butker made extra points: Over 2.5 (-166). I don’t bet this juice straight up, but throw it into a same-game parlay or any other NFL parlay you make this week. Butker didn’t attempt three extra points in Kansas City’s first two games, but he made all five of his XP attempts last Sunday. You have to imagine he gets to three vs. the Jets.
I like my picks for this game, but you might like R.J. White’s better. He’s our NFL expert over at SportsLine.com and he’s been on a roll with his Jets predictions, going 45-29-2 on his last 76 picks. If you want to check out White’s take on this prime-time game, you can do that here.