The NFL’s first international game of the 2023 season arrives on Sunday. The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, with Wembley Stadium hosting the matchup. Jacksonville has played more international games (nine) than any NFL franchise and will try to stop a two-game losing streak at 1-2 this season. Atlanta is 2-1 overall, though the Falcons are coming off a 14-point loss to the Detroit Lions.
Kickoff is at 9:30 a.m. ET in London. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Jaguars as 3-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43 in the latest Falcons vs. Jaguars odds. Before you make any Jaguars vs. Falcons picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Jaguars and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Jaguars:
- Falcons vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars -3
- Falcons vs. Jaguars over/under: 43 points
- Falcons vs. Jaguars money line: Jaguars -161, Falcons +138
- ATL: Falcons are 10-10 against the spread in the last 20 games
- JAX: Jaguars are 9-11 against the spread in the last 20 games
- Falcons vs. Jaguars picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Falcons can cover
Atlanta has won four straight over Jacksonville in the head-to-head series, and the Jaguars have also lost three straight games at Wembley Stadium. The Falcons take care of the ball well on offense, committing only two turnovers, and have had a robust running game this season. The Falcons are firmly in the top 10 with 128.3 rushing yards per game, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
First round pick Bijan Robinson is the centerpiece of that success and is off to a flying start in his rookie campaign. Robinson has 315 yards from scrimmage, ranking in the top 10, and is only the 14th player since 1970 with at least 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in his first three career games. Robinson ranks in the top eight of the league in yards after contact (3.8 per carry) and tackles avoided (15) this season, and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Atlanta will also face a scuffling Jacksonville defense that has given up 25.0 points per game and 264.3 passing yards per game, while producing only five sacks all season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Jaguars can cover
Jacksonville has immense organizational experience operating in London and has talented skill players on the offensive side. Former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is in the top 10 of the NFL in passing yards (736) and completions (73) this season, and that comes after a top-notch performance in 2022. Lawrence also has a potent No. 1 receiver in Calvin Ridley and a prominent running back in Travis Etienne. Etienne has 284 yards from scrimmage in three games after a 2022 season in which he had 1,441 yards from scrimmage. The former first-round pick also ranked in the top 10 of the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry in 2022.
Jacksonville is facing an Atlanta team that struggles to rush the passer, notching only three sacks this season, and the Jaguars also have defensive strengths. That includes six takeaways in three games this season, and Jacksonville also ranks in the top eight of the league in first downs allowed (52), rushing yards allowed (82.0 per game), and yards per rush attempt allowed (3.4). See which team to pick here.
How to make Falcons vs. Jaguars picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, with both teams projected to rush for more than 115 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Falcons vs. Jaguars in London, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Jaguars spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 167-117 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
