Lions vs. 49ers prediction, odds, spread, line, time: 2024 NFC Championship Game picks from model on 38-21 run

The San Francisco 49ers (13-5) will try to continue their historical success against the Detroit Lions (14-5) and punch their ticket to Super Bowl 58 when the teams meet on Sunday in the 2024 NFC Championship Game. The 49ers are 18-3 versus the Lions over their last 21 meetings, while the Niners have won 13 straight home games versus Detroit. However, these aren’t the same old Lions since Detroit has more playoff victories this season (two) than it had over the last 65 years combined (one). Another victory would propel the Lions to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Santa Clara. The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51.5 in the latest Lions vs. 49ers odds. Before you make any Lions vs. 49ers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the conference championship round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lions vs. 49ers and just locked in its picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. 49ers:

  • Lions vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -7.5
  • Lions vs. 49ers over/under: 51.5 points 
  • Lions vs. 49ers money line: 49ers -348, Lions +275
  • DET: Lions are 7-2 against the spread in road games 
  • SF: 49ers are 3-6 against the spread in home games
  • Lions vs. 49ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Lions vs. 49ers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Lions can cover

Detroit dominates in the trenches like few others as it ranks in the top five in both rushing yards and yards per carry while also ranking in the top three in both rushing yards allowed and rushing average allowed. David Montgomery (1,015 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (945) are the only pair of teammates with 900-plus rushing yards, and Detroit’s 27 rushing touchdowns led the NFL. On defense, the Lions are suffocating against the run and are the only team to not allow a RB to reach 70 rushing yards all season.

In addition to Montgomery (13 TDs) and Gibbs (11), pass catchers Amon-Ra St. Brown (10) and Sam LaPorta (10) also reached double-digit touchdowns. That makes Detroit the second team in NFL history with four players having at least 10 TDs, so the Lions can attack you from many different angles. In addition, Detroit is an NFL-best 13-6 against the spread this season, while San Francisco’s 9-9 ATS record is the worst amongst the four Conference Championship teams. See which team to pick here.

Why the 49ers can cover

The 49ers were in the top four of the NFL in passing yards (257.9 per game) and passing touchdowns (33) this season, helping to boost the team’s overall offense into the top three of the league in points per game, points per drive, scoring percentage, yards per play, total yards, and yards per drive. Quarterback Brock Purdy set an NFL record in averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt and the Pro Bowler was in the top five of the league in passing yards (4,280), passing touchdowns (31), touchdowns rate (7.0%), passer rating (113.0), completion rate (69.4%), and QBR (72.8).

The 49ers have one of the most versatile running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. San Francisco also has George Kittle, who led all tight ends with 1,020 receiving yards this season. From there, Detroit is shaky against the pass, ranking No. 27 in passing yards allowed (247.4 per game) and passing touchdowns allowed (28), with bottom-five marks in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8) and red zone efficiency allowed (66.0%). The Lions are also coming off back-to-back playoff games in which they allowed more than 400 total yards and combined to yield more than seven yards per play to opposing offenses. See which team to pick here.

How to make Lions vs. 49ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, with no pass-catcher projected to generate more than 85 receiving yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *