The Week 4 NFL schedule features 11 NFL spreads of four points or fewer, and betting road teams against the number has been the safest bet thus far. The away team is 26-19-3 against the spread, so is that one of the NFL trends you should follow while placing your Week 4 NFL bets? Despite losing 70-20 last week to the Dolphins, the Broncos are three-point road favorites against the Bears according to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from the SportsLine Consensus. Chicago is coming off its own loss to Kansas City and has looked like a serious contender for the No. 1 overall pick. All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top Week 4 NFL predictions
One of the model’s strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Texans (+2.5) cover against the Steelers. Even with a rookie under center, Houston has the stronger offense and better rankings in points and yards. Pittsburgh ranks just 27th in the latter and has failed to reach 400 total yards in 51 straight games. That’s the longest streak by any NFL team in over a decade.
Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has also yet to throw an interception and has two breakout receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They are the only pair of teammates that rank in the top 12 in receiving yards, and both have more yards than any Steeler. Add in that Pittsburgh ranks 30th against the run and Houston’s offense should be able to move the ball. With the Steelers offense not able to keep pace, the model has Houston (+3) covering over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Chargers (-5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Both teams are 1-2 on the season but appear to be trending in different directions, with Las Vegas losing as three-point home favorites last week against Pittsburgh and getting blown out in Buffalo the week prior. The Chargers finally got a win last week against the Vikings after losing by a combined five points to the Dolphins and Titans.
Despite the record, Justin Herbert has dazzled this season, completing 74.4% of his passes for 921 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. He’s plied No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen with 39 targets. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game all season and are averaging just 287.7 yards per game of total offense. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown a league-leading six interceptions and after an All-Pro season, Josh Jacobs is only averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Those are big reasons why the model is projecting that the Chargers cover the spread in well over 50% of simulations despite the line moving from four at open to five. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it’s identified three must-see underdogs who win straight-up. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 4 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Sunday, Oct. 1
Falcons vs. Jaguars (-3, 43)
Steelers at Texans (+2.5, 42.5)
Raiders at Chargers (-5, 48.5)
Patriots at Cowboys (-6.5, 43.5)
Cardinals at 49ers (-14, 43.5)
Chiefs at Jets (+8.5, 41.5)
Monday, Oct. 2