NEW DELHI: US President Joe Biden has emerged as the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Donald Trump for the first time since October, according to a new Fox News national survey. This shift coincides with a rise in positive views of the economy, marking the highest level of approval for economic conditions during Biden’s presidency.
The survey reveals a 3-point change in the presidential race since May. Previously, Trump was ahead by 1 point, but Biden now leads with 50 per cent to Trump’s 48 per cent, which is within the margin of error. Biden’s current 50 per cent support is his best in this election cycle; he last led Trump in October 2023 by a mere 1 point (49 per cent-48 per cent).
The survey notes several events since May that could influence voter preferences, including Trump’s hush money conviction, Hunter Biden’s gun trial conviction, a positive US jobs report, and Biden’s immigration executive order.
“There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “The vote preference improvement is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden built on his advantages on abortion and health care.”
The expanded ballot shows Biden leading Trump by 1 point (43 per cent -42 per cent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 10 per cent , and Cornel West and Jill Stein each at 2 per cent . Last month, Trump led Biden by 3 points (43 per cent -40 per cent).
Trump maintains strong support among men (+15), rural voters (+17), White men without a degree (+30), and White evangelical Christians (+46). Biden counters with strong backing from voters aged 65 and over (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23), and White women with a college degree (+28 per cent). Biden receives 73 per cent support from Black voters, slightly down from the 79 per cent before the 2020 election when he ultimately won 91 per cent of the Black vote.
As per the Fox News survey, partisan loyalty remains high, with 95 per cent of Democrats supporting Biden and 95 per cent of Republicans backing Trump. Independents, however, now favor Biden by 9 points, a change from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. Leadership and integrity are extremely important to Independents, who view Biden as having more integrity by 23 points, while Trump is seen as a stronger leader by 11 points.
“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”
Three-quarters of voters consider it highly important who wins the presidential election, with a 5-point preference for Biden. More women than men and more voters aged 65+ than younger voters believe the outcome matters greatly, potentially benefiting Biden.
In terms of personal favorability, majorities have a negative view of Trump (57 per cent), Vice President Harris (57 per cent), Biden (56 per cent), and Kennedy (51 per cent). Among Democrats, 84 per cent have a positive view of Biden, 82 per cent of the first lady, 77 per cent of Harris, and 35 per cent of Hunter Biden, while 86 per cent of Republicans view Trump favorably.
Economic sentiment has improved slightly, with 32 per cent of voters rating the economy as excellent or good, the highest during Biden’s presidency. Fifty-nine percent say they are financially stable or improving, up 5 points since last summer, and 44 per cent feel optimistic about the economy, a 9-point increase from 2023.
Biden’s job approval stands at 45 per cent , unchanged from last month but the best since January 2023. Thirty-four percent are satisfied with the country’s direction, the highest in over three years but still lower than when Biden took office in 2021.
Voters prioritize handling issues over candidate character by a 59 per cent -29 per cent margin. Trump is trusted more on immigration (+9 points) and the economy (+5 points), though these advantages have narrowed since May. Biden is trusted more on health care (+10 points) and the future of American democracy (+6 points), with his biggest advantages on abortion (+13 points) and climate change (+20 points).
Kennedy’s support has declined, with his net favorability now at -11 points. His supporters are evenly split between Biden and Trump in a two-way race.
The survey, conducted June 14-17, included 1,095 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The survey reveals a 3-point change in the presidential race since May. Previously, Trump was ahead by 1 point, but Biden now leads with 50 per cent to Trump’s 48 per cent, which is within the margin of error. Biden’s current 50 per cent support is his best in this election cycle; he last led Trump in October 2023 by a mere 1 point (49 per cent-48 per cent).
The survey notes several events since May that could influence voter preferences, including Trump’s hush money conviction, Hunter Biden’s gun trial conviction, a positive US jobs report, and Biden’s immigration executive order.
“There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “The vote preference improvement is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden built on his advantages on abortion and health care.”
The expanded ballot shows Biden leading Trump by 1 point (43 per cent -42 per cent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 10 per cent , and Cornel West and Jill Stein each at 2 per cent . Last month, Trump led Biden by 3 points (43 per cent -40 per cent).
Trump maintains strong support among men (+15), rural voters (+17), White men without a degree (+30), and White evangelical Christians (+46). Biden counters with strong backing from voters aged 65 and over (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23), and White women with a college degree (+28 per cent). Biden receives 73 per cent support from Black voters, slightly down from the 79 per cent before the 2020 election when he ultimately won 91 per cent of the Black vote.
As per the Fox News survey, partisan loyalty remains high, with 95 per cent of Democrats supporting Biden and 95 per cent of Republicans backing Trump. Independents, however, now favor Biden by 9 points, a change from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points. Leadership and integrity are extremely important to Independents, who view Biden as having more integrity by 23 points, while Trump is seen as a stronger leader by 11 points.
“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”
Three-quarters of voters consider it highly important who wins the presidential election, with a 5-point preference for Biden. More women than men and more voters aged 65+ than younger voters believe the outcome matters greatly, potentially benefiting Biden.
In terms of personal favorability, majorities have a negative view of Trump (57 per cent), Vice President Harris (57 per cent), Biden (56 per cent), and Kennedy (51 per cent). Among Democrats, 84 per cent have a positive view of Biden, 82 per cent of the first lady, 77 per cent of Harris, and 35 per cent of Hunter Biden, while 86 per cent of Republicans view Trump favorably.
Economic sentiment has improved slightly, with 32 per cent of voters rating the economy as excellent or good, the highest during Biden’s presidency. Fifty-nine percent say they are financially stable or improving, up 5 points since last summer, and 44 per cent feel optimistic about the economy, a 9-point increase from 2023.
Biden’s job approval stands at 45 per cent , unchanged from last month but the best since January 2023. Thirty-four percent are satisfied with the country’s direction, the highest in over three years but still lower than when Biden took office in 2021.
Voters prioritize handling issues over candidate character by a 59 per cent -29 per cent margin. Trump is trusted more on immigration (+9 points) and the economy (+5 points), though these advantages have narrowed since May. Biden is trusted more on health care (+10 points) and the future of American democracy (+6 points), with his biggest advantages on abortion (+13 points) and climate change (+20 points).
Kennedy’s support has declined, with his net favorability now at -11 points. His supporters are evenly split between Biden and Trump in a two-way race.
The survey, conducted June 14-17, included 1,095 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
